fattail.org Forums

SmilingSynic's ES journal--observations and trades

2010-09-10T03:55:45Z

Apparently the masses want a futures journal, and in light of the fact that this is an election year, and it is therefore prudent to give the masses what they want, here it goes:

A few guidelines:

1. Although the marquee says that it is "SmilingSynic's" journal, anyone can post here. Feel free to post trades (please do so live, not after the fact) and/or observations.

2. As for me, I will post trades and observations. I invite everyone to question what I write. I teach Socratically, and would like the same question-intensive approach to be applied here.

3. No #$#holes. If I wanted that, gee, I'd go to ET.
Please treat fellow posters with respect. We are gentlemen (and women) here.

I do like intense debate, and I welcome any rigorous questioning about my own thinking.

4. I also will post some material that I have written over the years. I welcome others to share links and illustrations. No problem with pictures. :-)

5. Please note that I do have a full-time job, and that I both swing trade (place orders overnight) and, when I can, do intraday trading between 1-4 PM. Some days I cannot daytrade at all, and on those days I stay up to trade the Hang Seng (trends well, but too thin).

The Coach's Swinger Journal

2010-09-09T20:18:53Z

No, not that kind of swinger journal. After a period of time of working out some kinks in my futures trading I have finally exorcised tick phucking from my futures portfolio and am ready to go full on swing trading/trend trading. I am still mainly an option trader so this is not a major part of the portfolio but I have put together a set of price action parameters that I feel gives me a high probability of catching a trend and riding it from as little as 1 day to a month if I can fight my temptation to cut and run early.

The indicators are not important as after I post a trade you can look at the chart and see the basis for the entry more or less. Most trades are entered towards the end of the day and I will sometimes add options where possible to hedge/enhance the position if I can.

This is a nice alternative for the scalpers and option trades to focus on longer-term swing trades with futures. I will also include stocks where I can. Number of contracts is scalable so will just mention entries and exits and since it is towards the end of the day the timing is not down to the minute so follow along!

Should you long Piss?

2010-09-08T04:24:42Z

Scientists develop fuel cells powered by urine
(NaturalNews) Efforts to develop alternative, renewable forms of energy have taken a whole new direction as researchers from the University of Edinburgh's School of Engineering and Physical Sciences recently announced a strange, almost humorous, new way to develop energy. Shanwen Tao and Rong Lan, two postdoctoral chemists from the university, have developed fuel cell prototypes that they say run on urine, converting it to both electricity and clean water.

According to a Yahoo! India news report, the team's fuel cells utilize a compound in urine called urea, which is an organic chemical waste product that results when the body metabolizes protein. And unlike current hydrogen gas and methanol fuel cell technologies, both of which can be problematic to the environment, urea is non-toxic, rich in useful nitrogen and readily available for use.

If we could only convince green engineers to power something other than lighting a cigarette with the male orgasm I'd be first in line to volunteer me services mate!!

As a pre-high schooler educated on Disney Hour "Pluto in Outer Space" info-cartoons I used to imagine, providing I was outside the constraints of Earthly gravity, that a half bladder squirt from my bath time sea-tank cannon could power me across the universe.

It's good to see some life returning to the fattail - I hope your vacations were filled with happy happy joy joy - - as for myself - was deep in mindless project work.

Regarding the S&P - what's the line that a 3 day set triple high will shed the "no more credit at the liquor store or plunge protection team" very famous air fern pet rock of an index down below 1060 before weeks end?

Keep it wet kiddies the rides just beginning and it's all downhill from here!

Workout supps

2010-09-07T23:29:53Z

Excellent deal on BCAAs and whey protein isolate. Basically getting two pounds of whey isolate for free:

http://www.dpsnutrition.net/get_item_pe071.htm

Post the trade

2010-09-07T13:27:10Z

Public journal. Post the entry/exit. Any asset class.

OptionVue Brokerage

2010-09-06T16:37:01Z

I heard a rumor recently that OptionVue is starting a brokerage operation and switching to a subscription based model for software. Can anyone confirm or deny?

THE fattail meet.

2010-09-05T21:03:26Z

I have a lot of commitments, so it cannot be sooner than Jan2011, but I am up for a meet in NYC or elsewhere... my preference would be LV, as I could head back into Tahoe. Let's throw the idea around.

Weinstein Trading and Fading

2010-08-31T22:59:11Z

It was kinda a mixed day today. After yesterday’s losses I was able to close out a modest gain.

Today started out busy and after the first initial hour really slowed down. I was able to get a few nice trades today.

LKQX H, 6B, + 858. while I expected to get more from this, I closed out at the end so that it wasn’t carried over.

LEAP H, 6b warning, + 244

HANS discretionary, + 516

DISCA discretionary, + 24

BCSI H, GU, + 84 (Carrying most over the weekend)

+ 1728 day

And I never knew there was a difference...

2010-08-30T03:08:13Z

between the "East Asian Squat," and the "SE Asian Squat."

http://www.pinz.com.sg/wc/home.html

EDIT: Link from this article: http://www.slate.com/id/2264657/

In any case, you won't want to pass up this 3551 pg. page-turner: http://books.google.com/books?ei=Tz9tTL … ition%2522

WEIRD westerners

2010-08-26T16:38:03Z

This article supports the idea I've always had that a primitive from the jungle might turn out to be a much better trader than a Harvard MBA. (Of course, it also supports my idea that almost all psychology is bullshit):

http://www.nationalpost.com/Westerners+ … story.html

riskarb's mark to market journal

2010-08-25T15:26:54Z

Bob W [1reason] has inspired me to post daily marks on my IB vol-portfolio. I'll be posting a daily pic of unrealized and realized gains at the close of the NYSE session.

Double Dip or VIX Bleed

2010-08-24T22:56:18Z

Well the boys and girls on Bloomberg finally fessed up

The old "Its not a double dip" shill train of fast talking market vendors and investment inventory dumpsters were pitching the "side street" and "retail" investment community has changed.

Instead of "Its not a double dip, so place your long bets here folks", we've grown accustomed to over the last 7 months, were hearing, instead, "OK, it is a double dip, but it already happened, so place your long bets here sucker".

Yes - the paper menagerie that underwrites cable finance news outlets and provides Mike with 10's of thousands of 3000$/Month "Bloomberg Finance Consoles" to ever the hopeful bookies laying down the "Monte" on 42ed street was wrong - but it makes no difference because it "already happened".

I've been watching the game and all that I've seen is a bunch of well heeled, savvy seep pocket bears gaming the VIX. A while Back the vix marked a top a 15. The VIX would blood off a little, but not as much, and climb to 20 and the market again marked a top. The cycle repeats, a VIX bleed off to a point higher than the previous turn around, the indexes swoon, but not as high. The most recent pull back occurred with VIX at 25.

IT'S BEEN A BEAR MARKET ALL ALONG.

The double dip didn't already happen - the market descends to that voodoo triple witching point, the 3rd Friday in October. According to the carp on cable we've done the double dip (already) and the gold will soon flow into our holdings like an unpaired higgs boson floats uphill.

B*LLSHIT!

US 10 Year Notes are more like par priced ZERO coupons - anyone thinking rates will drop and they can finally dump those jokes and recoup a sibilance of it's cost are choking a chicken with no meat!

For any of us still taking our meds - don't worry - Yes - a double dip did happen - but that is all in the past.

Question: How many double dips (in the past - or in the future) are required before your stuck in the muddy pool of holdings you'll never break even on!

snooker??

2010-08-19T23:52:20Z

I used to have a fair interest in pool (I owned a Joss cue back in the early 70's--they're worth thousands now. Collectors items. Ivory inlays, etc.). Unfortunately, a lot of Americans aren't well aware of snooker, and the level it's played at in the UK (the top players make millions for winning competitions). If you don't know, in snooker the balls are smaller, the pockets are MUCH smaller--and with rounded corners that make it MUCH harder to pocket a ball (pot a ball, they say). Furthermore, a competition snooker table is a whopping 6' X 12' whereas a competition pool table is 4 1/2' X 9'.

Anyhow, there has been for a good ten years an amazing, once a century (IMO) player: Ronnie O'Sullivan. For anyone who knows a little about the game, who can appreciate what he's seeing, well, the guy's something BEYOND a genius--it's like watching god. Watching him is like spending a day with Picasso or something, then having dinner with Einstein....

There are MANY youtube videos of his genius play. Here's just one decent example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYJeqjzDPvI

If you've ever had an interest in pool then watching this guy will give you an idea of the capabilities of the human nervous system--and thrill you.

The BET thread revisited

2010-08-18T12:32:11Z

To continue on the unresolved wager in which Matt went "off the grid":

http://www.fattail.org/viewtopic.php?id=547

Domestic has agreed to wager on the outcome of a trading competition with your's truly... winner of a one month return on limited risk (no margin). Loser has to wear the "I LOVE COCK" shirt for a night out at fattail con "FATCON".

Terms to be discussed here.

Let the fucking games begin!

THE Bet

2010-08-17T18:51:29Z

I've released Matt from the $100k commitment. Instead, the following bet was agreed to: