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Synic, i feel your frustration. I was in a similar situation but have recently taken alot of time off my other affairs and dedicated it to trading. If your edge is bankable, it would behoove you to cash in all you can, while you can. I too share your fears that 30-40 vix isnt here to stay.
Perhaps a sabbatical, long enough to keep your tenure?
Good stuff on the ES.
SS,
Read your journal with great interest, thank you for this.
If you have the time and willing, could you please post how you take the previous day close into consideration into your trading ?
Thank you very much and Godspeed.
Nen
SS,
Read your journal with great interest, thank you for this.
If you have the time and willing, could you please post how you take the previous day close into consideration into your trading ?
Thank you very much and Godspeed.
Nen
I'll get to this later, if I have time, but it is a good question.
I follow the number of stocks in the S&P 500 that trade above and below their 50 day simple moving averages.
Less than 10% of those stocks are trading above their 50 day ma (actually, only 8.4% are trading above) That is the lowest level since late January. I think all of us remember that that was a good time to buy, for those with a intermediate-term horizon.
A move to 1200 by options expiration is not at all out of the question. And, yes, I am buying (started late today) and have orders placed and will add some more on Monday. Longer-term buy position, holding for 1200 or 1/2 stocks trading at above 50 day ma, whatever comes first.
For those who trade the Nasdaq (NQ, QQQQ, QLD), it is even more oversold. Not since 2002 have fewer NASDAQ stocks traded above their 50 day moving average.
How am I playing this? I have small orders for SSO and QLD on a scale down.
Monday's gap down is probably what this market needs.
I am not trading futures with this longer-term strategy, for two reasons: (1) margin can change at any time, and I do not want to be kicked out of this position; and (2) longer-term positions need room and time to breathe and therefore need to be put on in SMALLER (is there such a thing as small caps?) size.
I am watching to see if ES can test battle of hastings (1066) that would be (roughly) equivalent to cash test of 1062 low (many moons ago) and roughly a print of Dow 10,000 cash.
but just watching right now (and probably for today) Pattern I prefer is a down day today down close, then true flush tomorrow morning.
it's just too much volatility for me to trade.
Vertigo,
This volatility is about as violent as it gets, and there is no need to trade it if one is not comfortable.
The VIX is now over 50--how often has that happened?
I am trading very small size.
Long NQ at 1405; target 1521.
How am I playing this? I have small orders for SSO and QLD on a scale down.
Monday's gap down is probably what this market needs.
The scale down orders were hit all around the same time, between 41.05 and 41.14. Target is around 48.
Note--this is intended as a longer-term (a few weeks) position.
EDIT: I am out of scale down orders for SSO. Unlimited scales are not for prudent traders. My position is on, and I am not adding to the SSO.
I have been having data problems. I hope these get cleared up by this afternoon.
Last edited by SmilingSynic (2008-10-06 06:24:41)
Have an market order for 2 ES if VIX touches 53.74.
Yes, this will be a longer term position, and my LAST longer-term buy order.
53.4 touched. Long 2 at 1050.75. DONE. My position is has been built; let's see if it can survive the market's storms.
As for the blow by blow, someone else is welcome to provide it. I have papers to grade, and a dean's meeting to get ready for this afternoon.
Last edited by SmilingSynic (2008-10-06 06:37:19)
Daily chart has SPX poking way outside its 2 SD bollinger Band. I dont use these to trade daily but watch them in general and it tends to snap back some on any significant poke outside. Might see some profit-taking buying off of these lows into the close.
Is 53.74 the magic number?
$60 S&P earnings x 15 PE = 900
or if you want to get real ambitious:
$40 earnings stabilized at 6% growth longterm = $40 x 12 PE = 400
$30 earnings stabilized at 5% growth longterm = $30 x 9 PE = 270
Last edited by enfinity (2008-10-06 06:34:18)
For those who trade the Nasdaq (NQ, QQQQ, QLD), it is even more oversold. Not since 2002 have fewer NASDAQ stocks traded above their 50 day moving average.
.
Bot 300 QLD at 41.98, and 150 more at 40.76. Another longer-term.
Is 53.74 the magic number?
$60 S&P earnings x 15 PE = 900
or if you want to get real ambitious:
$40 earnings stabilized at 6% growth longterm = $40 x 12 PE = 400
$30 earnings stabilized at 5% growth longterm = $30 x 9 PE = 270
53.74 is NOT a magic number, except that it is around 30% over the 10 day moving average; and it is a high number.
I really need to get to work here--later! :-)
Drawdown peaked at 5% this morning and stands at one day--worst drawdown all year. Still up around 34% for the year, but this is little consolation. Thank goodness I am playing like a p$#$y (at least when compared with other retail players who cannot watch the market all day).
The large gap down did not surprise me, but the lack of buying after has, and it has me concerned. On a typical gap down Monday morning, by now I'd expect to see the market near its daily high, not ready to test its daily low.
At this point I am supporting 432M in positions with around 240M. That does not mean that I am not prepared to take some off this afternoon, with the expectation of getting in lower overnight. I'll punt if it improves my position, and lowers drawdowns.
Last edited by SmilingSynic (2008-10-06 09:06:33)
If it makes you feel better, we have bought every 500pt drop in the last two weeks. The only way to get a rally with certainty, I am afraid, is for us to sell our positions here on the low. That always seems to work.
Segv,
I don't feel badly, except for the fact that I am unable to trade intraday at this point and take advantage (I have a 2 PM meeting that should go until 4). I had a great run since June, and now have stumbled, but since I did not abuse leverage, the fall is not that painful.
It's just another bet.
SS you teach college or high school level? 5% drawdown for a month will make some of the major hedge funds jealous who lost that in a day.
Under contrary opinion, consider this: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27045699/
Considering his track record as a solitary prognosticator, those of us long might well be on the right side!
Back at 4. For the record, I have a limit sell order to take a little off of the table at ES 1158. The price action today suggests much more pain.
Would you guys stop buying, I have other things to do and ticker f*cking wasn't how I wanted to spend the next 48 hours.
look at 1195.25 tail this morning when many thought Steve Leason (?SP) from cnbc came on the air with an announcement about the Fed, spike up was because traders thought rate cut. (Rate cut's not going to do anything, but it will spark short-covering.
anyway, that tail at 1095.25-100 = 995.25, this would satisfy a dip below 1000.
The markets are very oversold and due for a bounce, but might have to close on low of day today and then flush early tomorrow. (I know this is what Art Cashin is saying, but what can I tell, I've been around for a while and believe me that has been the pattern that memory recognizes as short-term paydirt.
Super High VIX readings (to me) mean, erratic bottom formation that can see one day up 100 pts, next day down 85.
I expect S&P cash to close down today 87 points
I looked at weekly chart, meat of support (from years ago) starts at 1000, technically 996.70 area (cash), call it 997. runs all the way to the high established in between the Oct 2002 low and the Mar 2003 low, that was 954, see chart support 973-963 (not expected to be tested on this decline.
unfortunately, upside tomorrow (after flush) would only be a technical bounce. target 1 = 1075, target 2 would be today's GAP fill 1096 to 1109.
I don't know what's going to happen, but I will be looking for a long position tomorrow. A lift this afternoon would not make me bullish. Sorry old habits are hard to extinguish,
Are you familiar with M.A.S.H? I want to see a Frank Burns panic sell: "sell everything at market regardless of price."
SS you teach college or high school level? 5% drawdown for a month will make some of the major hedge funds jealous who lost that in a day.
Hi, Phil
I am a full professor and department chair at a small state university (much smaller than Georgetown, which is where you are, right?).
Trading while teaching was no problem, as I taught only two classes in person (two others I taught online) but being department chair and professor is just too much. I am only "interim" department chair, but I am dealing with all of the problems that a permanent chair would. You would not believe how much work it is managing the egomaniacs; the only reason I am doing it is because the university has always been good to me, and they were there for me when my wife had to quit her job to care for my disabled child. Since they were there for me, I want to be there for them now, but it is costing me.
No, I don't teach finance. If I did, I might be like the other hedge funds--waaayyy down.
Meeting done earlier than I thought (for a change).
Measured move today:
1082.50 to 31 = 51.50
1031 to 61
1061- 51.50 = 1009.50
Afternoon low is 1009.
I did not add to the ES at that level, since I have already built my position.
well, that was good enough for me, I am flat.
I did have time to call TIAA-CREF (my pension) and move 100% of my portfolio from the inflation-adjusted bond portfolio to US equities, effective end of working day. I would like to think that I can avoid adjusting this again until after the holidays, or at least until over 1200.
Sell in May, go away worked like a charm this year. The buy back in October part remains to be seen.
TIAA-CREF does not allow for trading--this isn't RYDEX.
Is a run at upper 50's possible, even probable, this afternoon?
Yes, Virginia, it is.
Is a run at upper 50's possible, even probable, this afternoon?
Yes, Virginia, it is.
Sold off one ES at 1058. Still holding most of the position, but will dump more at the low 80's.
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